Nothing has changed critically. Novorossia will not be yielded up in that form that is suitable for Poroshenko, because their demands are covert capitulation. “Partner Petr Alekseevitch “got in wrong” his friends Surkov and Zurabov who have impressed the president on “peaceful regulation” about a year. However, it won’t be without defeat of the junta, and they know it better than us. And even if the document was signed in Minsk, the war would go on, it will be the same situation like after “Minsk-1”, Ukies will make arrangements for “the Great War with Russia”.

-Igor Ivanovich leans to inevitable Great War for Russia, and everyone understands that they all wait this from us! Is it really that the only way is for today Great War? And what do you mean war? Is it something similar to the conflict in Georgia or interference of the West?

-I suppose that if one of two enemies wants ceasefire, and the second is going to fight, it means that the battle will be in any case. And we have to revise antique classic: ‘If you want to have peace, you have to be ready for the war’.

Interference of “friends” has started at the Maidan, and it has been still going on. But, I am nearly sure that they will not lead war against Russia with own hands. They will lead the war till “the last Ukie”. It is true. They will give money, instructors, everything. Their plan is clear, they want to protract the war to the moment when economic and domestic political situation in Russia will not lead to “palace revolution” and they would like to get everything from “new government”. They manage everything now, mainly, thankfully to “5th column of power” that follows this plan.

-Igor Ivanovich, which prediction do you have in a case of failure of Minsk (what is nearly obviously)? Will be able the troops of the DPR and LPR to remove troops of the Ukies from the cities themselves after the liquidation of the Debaltsevo trap and with support of exchange?

They will not manage to do it now. They had to do it in September, October when the UAF were crushed and demoralized. Tactic successes are possible just in this situation. Ukrainians have two times more losses that the Army of Novorossia, but they bigger Army, and it will be able to remove the front for the safe distance not earlier than 6 months. And I did not take into account 5th and 6th waves of the mobilization and massive supplies of military technique from the West. I’d like to underline once more that we have “Minsk-2.0” and it is absolutely unvital. This ceasefire will die with probability 90%. I will live 10% for probability that Novorossia will be unrealized (but, it is unlikely connected with the position of V.V. Putin.

“The war is worth the candle”. There is so much noise because of nothing.

Igor Strelkov

События независимой России

Ex-Defence Minister of the concerning new Minsk agreements